Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
