Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
